Are You Ready For Another Contest? HURRY UP! TIME IS RUNNING OUT! (Closed to new entries)
While I was in California last week, the Dow Jones hit a milestone for the first time ever. The Dow Jones closed over 13,000 points. Mark it down: Tuesday April 25th, 2007, the Dow industrials went as high as 13,107.45 before closing at 13,089.89.
Prior to the middle of last week, the Dow rose in 18 of the past 20 sessions and gained more than 780 points in that time. Last Wednesday marked the Dow’s 35th record close since the start of October 2006. Truly unbelievable!
It took the Dow just 129 trading days, since Oct. 18, 2006 to make the trek from 12,000 to 13,000, far less than the seven and a half years the blue chips took to go from 11,000 to 12,000. The swiftness of this latest trip does bring to mind the days of the dot-com boom, when the major indexes were soaring and it took the Dow a mere 24 days to barrel from 10,000 to 11,000.
- Does it slow down?
- Does it spiral down out of control?
- And when the clock strikes 4:00 EST on 12/31/2007 where does the Dow Jones stand?
Sounds to me like those questions beg for…
ANOTHER CONTEST!
You have until 5:00 PM CDT on Friday May 11, 2007 to send in your guess for what you believe will be the final resting place for the Dow Jones on 12/31/2007.
The rules are simple:
- You are only allowed one entry.
- You will be notified if your choice is already taken and will be given an opportunity to make another choice.
- You will need to include a reason to support the choice you have made
- If there is a tie (e.g. one person guesses 20 points too high and another quesses 20 points too low) the person who has the lowest guess will win – there will only be one winner!
- The deadline is 5:00 CDT on May 11, 2007
In order to help you a little bit, here is a little history on the Dow Jones:
12/29/2006 - 12,463
12/30/2005 – 10,717
12/31/2004 – 10,783
12/31/2003 – 10,453
12/31/2002 – 8,341
12/31/2001 – 10,021
12/29/2000 – 10,786
Yes there is a prize involved. The closest person to the actual right answer will win a prize. The total amount of the prize will depend on how close the winning guess is:
| Within 20 points | $500.00 |
| 21 – 50 points | $250.00 |
| 50- 100 points | $100.00 |
If you get it EXACT, you will win an extra $250.00!
Let the contest begin.
I look forward to hearing from all of you.
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:07 am
13,672. We’re moving into the summer duldrums where I expect slowed M&A activity, continued pressure from the housing market, and little politically positive news for the capital markets.
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:14 am
My guess will be 13,323. I believe the Dow Jones will go back and forth around 13,000 for most of the rest of the year before inching up a little bit and settling down for a little more upside but not much.
Good luck to everyone!
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:34 am
I’m confident we’ll see the Dow stay up through the end of the year, but I expect that it will slide back to a state of reality near the 13 mark.
My estimate is 12,950.
My reasoning for believing it will take a slight back slide is there are too many factors against the DOW sustaining the 13+ mark. There are several pharma stocks up against FDA approval deadlines, the price of Oil is expected to sky rocket this summer, the housing market is facing a downturn across the country and there is still uncertainty in the middle east (Iraq, Afghanistan, etc…). Despite all of this, we’re still in a bubble economy and I don’t see a major downturn coming, but more of a leveling off toward the end of 2007.
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:59 am
7% average growth so 13,335
May 2nd, 2007 at 8:10 am
11950 - I think there will be a minor pull back by the end of the year. The market is a little too positive and optimistic at the present. I believe there Will be a minor correction by the end of the year.
May 2nd, 2007 at 8:38 am
I believe “sell in May and go away” will be true again this year as the Dow will only add a few hundred points between now and the end of the year. My pick is 13,702.50.
May 2nd, 2007 at 8:41 am
11,975 - investors are still very optimistic at the moment but there is still too much uncertainty in the Middle East, gas prices have been on the rise and may peak near $3 per gallon by the summer, the housing market has stumbled slightly. I think consumer confidence will slide slightly and lead to a slight downturn in the market.
May 2nd, 2007 at 8:51 am
12/31/2007 - 12,763 I’d like to think we’ll stay in the 13,000’s, but I don’t know if it’s practical…so, I went with a slightly lower number.
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:17 am
13,193
I think energy prices will keep the Dow about flat to where it is now.
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:19 am
14,209
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:33 am
My crystal ball tells me the Dow Jones Average will close out 2007 at 13855. On average over the past 20 years the Dow Jones as closed out the year 6% higher than where it closed on or near April 25.
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:35 am
13,444 - It’s been a decent year and I think, being the prime optimist that I am, even though we will have ups and downs during the remainder of the year, that the Dow will end up alive & kicking!
May 2nd, 2007 at 10:31 am
Well, according to reports we are in a Bullish market, so my guess is 13712.
May 2nd, 2007 at 10:37 am
I think 11,750 because the Red Sox may win the World Series, again, which would have not only a negative impact on the Dow but on my life. I would expect global warming to accelerate as well if this happens.
May 2nd, 2007 at 10:40 am
I believe the Dow will end out the year at 13,975. Presidential politics will have an influence on the Dow towards the end of the year to keep it high.
May 2nd, 2007 at 11:05 am
I can’t resist another contest - 12,832.
C’mon baby - mama needs a new pair of shoes.
May 2nd, 2007 at 11:08 am
Didn’t give my reason earlier - I’m going against the flow and saying that the DOW will increase the same amount this year as it did last year, hence my 14,209.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:05 pm
12,296 - The global economy is tightly tied to China and India (as we found out in late February. One of these two economies will “overheat” and the ripple effect will felt worldwide.
May 2nd, 2007 at 10:42 pm
13,201
Lucky numbers involved…
May 3rd, 2007 at 9:48 am
12,999
May 4th, 2007 at 6:50 am
13900 - my accounts are banking on it
May 4th, 2007 at 9:08 am
Well I am rolling the dice on this one
12714
May 4th, 2007 at 9:20 am
14,453
May 4th, 2007 at 9:46 am
My guess is 13,850. I think with the emphasis on “green” right now that the demand for environmentally friendly products will increase and help the ecomomy.
May 6th, 2007 at 9:29 am
13,460 will probably be where the Dow winds up at the end of 2007.
Large caps are attractive, but mid and small caps are over valued.The current bull market is unusually extended and will probably slow to mid single digit growth in 2007. Housing is softer, but energy prices will continue to rise. This will wind up being a typical growth year, but for none of the normal reasons.
May 7th, 2007 at 6:45 am
“Moo.” I’m going with 14786, which assumes the market continues to grow the rest of the year at it’s current 2007 pace.
May 7th, 2007 at 8:22 am
13,753.
I fit a line through the data and projected it to the end of the year.
May 7th, 2007 at 10:41 am
OK, since it’s anyone’s guess right now. I’ll say 13,548!
May 7th, 2007 at 11:07 am
13,595
May 7th, 2007 at 11:19 am
13,181
May 7th, 2007 at 11:46 am
13,888 for the same reason that the summer Olympics are being held on 08/08/08.
May 7th, 2007 at 12:12 pm
Ok, based on where we’re headed with the baby boomer population frantically investing now for their retirement within the next decade, I propose a rise to at least 15,692, by year end!
May 8th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
13,761 because I feel we have risen at a rapid but steady pace and now we will see it start to level off.
May 8th, 2007 at 4:39 pm
11464
It’s a guess…Birthdays should be good for something other than getting older
May 8th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
I like the sound of 13108. Lost fans will recognize the significance of 108.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:58 pm
12,684 - for no real reason
May 9th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
I think we are going to have a correction or two before the end of the year-
I’ll go with 12,150
May 10th, 2007 at 1:00 pm
I’m feeling 13,456. Not too much change given the instability of the country and no resolutions in the near future (war, gas prices, Presidential election politics/uncertainty, etc.). (BTW, thanks so much for the spell check!
May 11th, 2007 at 7:06 am
12,222
Too many negative factors coming together at once will knock the market down in ‘07. But the big fall will be in ‘08 when the Dem’s start boosting taxes…
May 11th, 2007 at 7:21 am
13,200 - strong earnings from Dow companies will keep the gains where that are but downward pressure from the energy sector and Iraq will keep additional gains for the year modest. Sounds good, huh?
May 11th, 2007 at 7:25 am
13,826.
Merrill, the last time I played games with you, we were putting around the office in New Jersey.
May 11th, 2007 at 7:30 am
13610 is my guess for reasons similar to many expressed. Stock Market said to reflect economy 6 months in advance. Usually dives in October. My inclination in most years would be to decrease the estimate for 12/31. But 2008 is an election year, and lacking either an economic disaster (China,India, etc.) or natural or military upset, I think that year-end will hold up.
May 11th, 2007 at 7:42 am
14,101
I think that stocks will cool a bit in the summer months, but then hit a year-end rally, with sentiment carrying the Dow just above 14K.
May 11th, 2007 at 8:02 am
14,494
I believe the market will continue to be bullish throughout the end of the year. My pick is based on the same percentage increase we saw from ‘05 to ‘06.
May 11th, 2007 at 8:25 am
13086 - I am guessing only a 5% increase over last year.
May 11th, 2007 at 8:25 am
There remains a lot of uncertainty in the world including the financial markets but since I’m both an optimistic and positive person (although realistic too), I’ll say 13,502.
May 11th, 2007 at 8:50 am
12985- A lucky guess
May 11th, 2007 at 9:09 am
13,000. The best predictor of tomorrow’s weather is today’s weather.
May 11th, 2007 at 9:09 am
13875 - A lucky guess.
May 11th, 2007 at 9:24 am
I believe the market is going to increase but at a slower pace then we have seen - especially as the year ends.
So here’s my guess - 13,739
May 11th, 2007 at 9:36 am
I think that 14k is not out of the question, but the 4th quarter downturns might be a little steeper this year given the quick increases. My guess is 13888 (8 is my lucky number!).
May 11th, 2007 at 9:36 am
Merrill, I feel that there is a lot of uncertainty so I think I will go with 12,807.
May 11th, 2007 at 9:51 am
OK, so 13888 is taken…How about 13889?
May 11th, 2007 at 10:18 am
13,790…approx 20 points per week until the end of the year.
May 11th, 2007 at 10:23 am
I feel we are going to see a downturn come October. The Dow compared with the rest of the US econcomy is out of whack. My prediction is the dow will significantly drop - I’m saying 10,427.
May 11th, 2007 at 10:27 am
13,186 - Just a guess….
May 11th, 2007 at 11:15 am
I going to remain optimistic and say 13,165. I do believe the economy is going to suffer the rest of the year due to the high cost of fuel. The fuel cost is going to have an affect on consumer spending, and I think that will greatly affect the big holiday shopping season. I hope I win though!
May 11th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
12,700. i see it going down due to political division in our country with the war. being it is an election year in 2008, i feel it will then continue to slide
May 11th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
13292. Average of everyone else’s guess so far. Wisdom of Crowds.
May 11th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
12,823
My only reason - a friend of a friend guessed this number so I’m borrowing it.
July 16th, 2007 at 6:43 am
On Thursday the Dow posted it’s biggest gain since 2003. I am surprised that the Dow continues to go up as it approaches 14,000. But I clearly won’t complain.
Currently there are only 6 people who predicted the Dow would close 2007 higher than 14,000.
I am sure I speak for everyone when I say that I want Fee to be right with a guess of 15,692!
Merrill
July 19th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
WOW!
It finally happened. Today the Dow closed at 14,000.41.
I am still shocked - let it go higher and higher and higher. Fee I hope you win!
Merrill
September 2nd, 2007 at 6:57 am
It has been an up and down summer for the Dow Jones - some days the swings are almost 300 points.
As of September 1st here is where we stand:
Uncle J 13460
Lorri 13456
Ginger Blazier 13444
DJI 13357.74
Kevin Robertson 13335
Merrill Dubrow 13323
Chris Wallace 13292
Good luck to all.
Merrill
October 1st, 2007 at 10:09 am
The leaderboard has changed with three months to go
Kurt 14101
Vic Walsh 13975
Steve Schlesinger 13900
DJI 13895.63
Bill Dunn 13889
Jane Rosen 13888
Thonisha Barnes 13875
Good luck to everyone.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:43 pm
just wondering if you are still taking prediction even though ver y close to end of year . If so my guess is 13878 for end of 2007
November 21st, 2007 at 3:11 pm
Rob,
Appreciate your email. Unfortunately the deadline for this contest has passed. There will be a number of contests in the future and feel free to entry the Power of Ten contest which posted today and is at the top of this blog.
Merrill
December 7th, 2007 at 8:44 am
Here is the leader board with less than a month to go:
Fred Van Tatenhove 13702.5
Jacob Bonenberger 13672
DJI 13619.89
Joan Burns 13610
Kristy Hoover 13595
Good luck to everyone!
December 28th, 2007 at 7:31 am
With one day to go here is the leaderboard
Good luck to everyone!
Larry Gulledge 142.38
Uncle J 100.38
Lorri 96.38
Ginger Blazier 84.38
DJI 13359.61
Kevin Robertson -24.62
Merrill Dubrow -36.62
Chris Wallace -67.62
Lauren Jacobs -158.62
Mike Sullivan -159.62
December 28th, 2007 at 6:26 pm
Congratulations to Kevin Robertson who has won the Dow Joes Contest:
Here are some folks that were also close:
Uncle J 13460 94.12
Lorri 13456 90.12
Ginger Blazier 13444 78.12
DJI 13365.87
Kevin Robertson 13335 -30.88
Merrill Dubrow 13323 -42.88
Chris Wallace 13292 -73.88
January 18th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Oops - I forgot that Monday December 31st was a trading day so actually congratulations goes to Chris Wallace.
Here are some other people who were very close:
Kevin Robertson 13335 70.18
Merrill Dubrow 13323 58.18
Chris Wallace 13292 27.18
DJI 13264.82
Lauren Jacobs 13201 -63.82
Mike Sullivan 13200 -64.82