It’s A Brave New Virtual World…The Next Frontier Of Market Research? By Kelly Heatly, Guest Writer
Have you– your avatar, that is–stepped into a virtual world lately? Are you familiar with Second Life?
If you are a marketer or market researcher who hasn’t yet experienced this "other" thriving world out there, where avatars buy homes, shop for clothes, and even open businesses–check it out. You may be amazed to see the potential of the avatar-based market.
Is this the next frontier of market research? I think yes.
At the recent QRCA Conference, Jim Bryson of 20/20 Research delivered an intriguing presentation, "The Second Life Phenomenon," where he presented the magnitude and growth of virtual worlds like Second Life. Following his presentation, my curiosity sent me soaring into virtual world mania to dig deeper on the subject. It’s truly fascinating–the implications for marketing AND marketing research are significant. And I believe we are only on the threshold.
(For a list of the top virtual world sites, visit www.VirtualWorldsReview.com.)
First, virtual worlds are growing. Subscriptions are on the rise, and it seems these sites are attracting a broader audience as we round the early adopter curve (currently half are under 30 and heavy male).
Second, advertising and marketing spending is increasing, expected to reach $150 million by 2012, up from $15 million in 2006 (Parks Associates, VirtualWorldNews.com 2007). Some companies have developed their own virtual worlds (i.e., CokeStudios.com), while others use existing sites as a communication medium. Example: New Second Life subscribers can join the Ben & Jerry’s Community, outfit their avatars in a Cherry Garcia t-shirt, and teleport themselves to the Ben & Jerry’s ice cream factory. (It’s fun, try it.)
While a virtual world is a powerfully engaging environment for a brand, do avatars represent actual consumers? Does that matter? Avatars don’t always physically or behaviorally represent their creators. Jim shared data from Global Market Insite (March 2007) about self-created avatars: 45% are better looking, 37% are younger, and 23% are a different gender. Hmmm…
Some experts argue that, as a creative self-expression, an avatar represents the "real" uninhibited consumer, displaying his or her psyche via the avatar. Market researchers can use avatars to uncover "true" perceptions, attitudes, and behaviors of the consumers who created them. I tend to agree, and I see two broad applications for virtual world market research:
- In-World Brand Research: As brand presence in virtual worlds becomes prevalent, especially as consumers at large become comfortable with them, I predict we’ll see more "in world" research supporting virtual world marketing. So, avatars (subscribers) residing in virtual world(s) of interest will become respondents for research conducted at in-world field locations (i.e., virtual focus group facility, mall location, in-home). Cool stuff.
- Virtual World Research Platform: Aside from specific virtual world sites, avatars will become more commonplace across many applications. I envision online research platforms to soon include avatars in lieu of one-dimensional text chat. Online focus groups could eventually evolve into virtual (avatar) focus groups.
Sure enough, such research already exists. I discovered some fascinating research conducted by Thomas Kohler, a PhD student at Innsbruck University School of Management, Austria. For his dissertation, he studied "using virtual worlds for real world innovation" and conducted virtual focus groups in Second Life to support his research. His concept is brilliant: using avatars for product innovation. The "media rich environment" facilitates collaboration and "creative and highly involved users innovate in an anonymous and unconstrained setting." Indeed, it’s a brave new virtual world.
Do you think virtual reality is the next frontier of market research?
What do you think about avatar-based research?
What are your predictions?
I look forward to your comments.
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Kelly Heatly is an independent Qualitative Research Consultant, providing full service qualitative research to suppliers and client-side corporations across a wide range of industries. Her services include research design, moderating, analysis, and reporting, working with clients in an immersive and collaborative style of partnership.
With more than 13 years of marketing research experience, Kelly has conducted qualitative research focused on new product development, brand essence, advertising, communications, brand positioning, website usability, and customer satisfaction. She specializes in focus group moderating and individual depth interviewing with expertise in eye-tracking studies, projective techniques, needs elicitation, idea generation, and concept testing. Her experience encompasses consumer and business-to-business studies for a wide variety of industries including CPG, consumer electronics, apparel, healthcare, financial, retail, travel & leisure, homebuilding, energy & utility, and industrial.
Kelly earned a BS in Marketing with an emphasis in communications from Louisiana State University and an MS in Marketing Research from The University of Texas at Arlington. She leads the UTA MSMR Alumni Association’s student mentoring program.
January 7th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Kelly,
Interesting article, though I think it will be quite a while before these virtual communities become any type of fertile research/marketing breeding ground, if ever. I know when people see the under 30 male category their eyes light up because it can be challenging to reach this demographic. However, I would argue that the under 30 males playing in virtual worlds are not typical of, well typical of any group. Maybe if you are looking for anti-social males under 30 then bingo, you’ve come to the right place, otherwise don’t bother. You can certainly place ads for various brands into these “worlds” and they may even work on a subliminal level but how you would gather any metrics as to their affectiveness I think might prove problematic.
I personally think the online social networks (MySpace, Facebook, etc.) are the places we should be focusing on and figuring out how to engage that audience. The major issue I see with the social networks is fighting through peoples privacy concerns so that they don’t feel inundated with too much material that they might perceive as SPAM.
January 7th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
There were a series of interesting discussion groups at ESOMAR about just this topic. The dynamics of the online environment will definitely change the rules by which we are able to conduct research as younger segments become fertile research ground. Their experience online, from social networking to virtual worlds to gaming, will influence their attention spans and ways of interacting with researchers. This future is much closer than we think.
I have some proprietary statistics from my own research studies that firmly refute the previous poster’s assertions about the demographics of people in online environments. This is the future and it is now.
If we thought online research was a game changing moment, that’s nothing compared to the dynamics of research in the next 5 to 10 years. Only those with the vision to look ahead and embrace it will survive.
January 7th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
What Ken said probably reflects all of our problems with this approach. Sven certainly does not have time for SecondLife, which makes him ponder - who are these people? What Ken said characterizing the anti-social can be multiplied 100 times with concerns about the who cares attitude of those who thrive on the anonymity and desire to be disingenuous in any such open forum.
Sven has some real issues with fine print stating that this is not a scientific survey and may not reflect actual opinions of real people. Sven thinks there would need to be such a disclaimer on anything collected this way.
Now whoever thought of using Myspace or Facebook for these purposes, however, is a genius.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:11 am
My assertions about demographics were only targeted to people “playing” in virtural worlds. I stated that I thought the social networks were indeed a place worth considering. I would be very interested in seeing statistics on Virtual World demograpghics; age, gender, income, but I fear I wouldn’t even trust that data, because the whole point of creating an Avatar is so you can be someone else…there is still a very big distrust factor among this group of Virtual World players and I do not believe that they believe it would be in their best interest to give anyone their “honest” opinion.
I do agree with Jennifers point that young people today are growing up in a totally different technological world than those of the previous generation and the Research industry will have to adapt…though I fear like the acceptance of Online interviewing, the industry will be cautious and slow to adapt. Sometimes being first to market with new technology does not help you in these situations. The key is to have your technology in place when the industry and their clients accept the next wave of new data collection methods.
January 8th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Great comments.
Ken–Thanks for clarifying that your perspective is focused on “playing” in virtual worlds. Indeed, the gamer segment is a tight universe of users. However, to Jennifer’s point, the virtual world medium is moving beyond gaming. Second Life is a good example: it’s not a massively multi-player online game and member demos are far broader than gaming worlds.
So, isn’t it possible virtual worlds are the next “step” in online communication IN GENERAL? We’ve come a long way: email, live chat, VoIP, video-conferencing. Virtual worlds provide the next step to simulating live interaction, which we know is basically infeasible in today’s world. The younger generation is perfectly comfortable interacting online, but I believe they want to express themselves in more ways than text.
Applications beyond gaming already exist. Cisco offers “virtual” conferencing as a new alternative to videoconferencing. Check it out: http://www.cisco.com/en/US/products/ps8333/index.html
I agree with Sven’s and Ken’s assertion about the potential of social networking sites. I don’t suggest that virtual worlds will replace these sites. Actually, I think the environment/concept is similar with the use of photos, videos, and text working together in an interactive format.
As for the distrust of the data derived from virtual worlds, how do we know ANY data from an online source is accurate? We don’t think about the authenticity of an email sender or online converser as much anymore because these methods are commonplace.
January 9th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Kelly –
Great article exploring the potential of Second Life for research….and I appreciate the plug/citation.
The article and the comments are both interesting because they highlight the controversy and mixture of attitudes toward these platforms. There are a lot of opinions that each have their own validity and likely all have some mixture of “rightness” to them.
To me the interesting discussion is actually the “post-Second Life” research implications. Second Life has busted open the virtual world to the average internet-er and created the buzz over its appropriate use for research. This is all very good but what does the Second Life phenomenon point to in the future?
Currently, the concern over Second Life and other virtual worlds for research applications revolves around the alternate personality that these people assume when online or the concern that they are somehow not “normal” for research studies. However, when the virtual reality technology transitions from fantasy world to real world, everything changes.
For instance, there will come a day in the near future, where you and your avatar will stroll down the virtual mall and enter a virtual store to purchase a real product that will be shipped to your home. Won’t this be a valid basis for conducting “real” research with “normal” people? I think so. This scenario is only one of many. The options are only limited by the imagination…and the collective imagination of internet users is unlimited.
Is Second Life the next big thing in marketing research? Personally, I don’t think so, BUT I do believe that Second Life is a harbinger of a huge new research world that is opening up before our eyes.
In 2000, we at 20/20 Research developed the Qualboard bulletin board software for qualitative research. We couldn’t sell it because researchers said you had to “see and hear” people to understand them. Now, our industry has realized that Qualboard and other online qual tools are outstanding for specific applications and the methodology is growing rapidly. We will find a similar application acceptance curve for virtual reality.
January 10th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Jim - I think you have hit the nail on the head explaining the future of virtual worlds: evolving from “fantasy” to real-world commerce. It’s early, but I believe the virtual reality platform will become not only a social networking and commerce platform but also a research platform (especially for younger respondents).
Hooray for you for being on the cutting edge. You’ll be ready when it becomes more mainstream.
January 14th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Let me preface what I write by saying that what I feel about this issue is my intuitive feeling; and I would certainly appreciate being led to solid research into this area of virtual usage and its outcomes. Some of you have mentioned research you have or have read. Could these, please, be cited.
I feel there exists a gap between what people will do in a virtual situation versus what they would actually do in a real situation. I believe this gap provides that variable of uncertainty. Let me offer a slightly different example - the New Hampshire Primary. Going into this race B. Obama was polled to have had a ~13% lead in this primary. However, as we all know now, he finished ~3% behind Clinton, who won this primary. What happened?? I know there are those who claim some type of rigging, or that Clinton’s weeping the day before the election brought more women into her camp. This is exactly my point. Putting aside the rigging theory, it seems that one thing is certain; what people say they will do or what people act as though they would do in an artificial environment could be completely different from what they will actually do in a real situation. Thus, there is no surprise that ~80% of new products fail after their release.
In terms of using avatars as self-expression, I believe this exists, but only to the limits of how creative one can be in creating an avatar which represents “the true self.” To me the examples Ms. Heatly displays above do not have the look of anything close to reality. If this is an example of what is at the cutting edge of this type of research, I would say the edge has a long ways to move before it can begin to be of any accurate and real use.
I have created avatar which I certainly would never say represented my “true self.” It represents me to the extent of the choices I was given in creating an avatar. I selected features which were closest (this is the key word here, “closet”) to mine. However, in the end it was no where near the “real” Al. As Ms. Heatly points out from Global Market Insite, “45% are better looking, 37% are younger, and 23% are a different gender.” Now what are you going to do?
“Market researchers can use avatars to uncover “true” perceptions, attitudes, and behaviors of the consumers who created them.” I don’t know. My personal experience make me doubt this so far.
“Virtual World Research Platform: Aside from specific virtual world sites, avatars will become more commonplace across many applications.” This may be true, but increased usage of anything does not equate to accuracy or reliability. Proven accuracy and reliability equates to accuracy or reliability.
“…fascinating research conducted by Thomas Kohler, a PhD student at Innsbruck University School of Management, Austria. For his dissertation, he studied “using virtual worlds for real world innovation” and conducted virtual focus groups in Second Life to support his research.” This is interesting and something I will seek out to read. Does Mr. Kohler’s work provide instruction on how this will bring the new product failure rate down, or provide accurate information on what subjects would really do; or is it “brilliant” on it’s surface because it sounds promising?
I think Ms. Heatly has tapped into a subject which is the most timely that I have read on this blog since I started reading it over a year ago. If anyone has any research/information which would dispute my intuitive feelings about the current state of this type of research, I would certainly welcome it with appreciative arms. Kudos Ms. Heatly for bringing up such a forward thinking subject.
January 14th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Kelly,
We have incorporated using avatars in our on-line focus groups. We allow respondents to select an avatar to represent themselves during the group. Agree that this does not truly reflect their true self but it helps in adding fun to the group and generates conversation flow between the respondents and moderator.
January 15th, 2008 at 3:39 am
Hello Gonzale, I am the one actually working on the thesis (excuse me if I partly quote from my work due to a lack of time to rephrase it – sorry if it’s too long to read).
You correctly pointed out the challenge that new product development is characterized by high risk and high market failure. Both theory and intuition suggests that the main reason identified, is the lacking market orientation (eg. Ogawa and Piller, 2006). Traditional market research seems to fail in retaining customers needs and wants (von Hippel, 2001). Therefore the ability to integrate the customer into the creation of new products is recommended (e.g. Gruner and Homburg, 2000). Companies that outsource need-related product development tasks to consumers, who experience the needs, allow the creation of products and features that consumer really want (von Hippel and Katz, 2002).
I don’t expect virtual worlds per se to help companies deal with that challenge, but in the way virtual worlds are used as a platform for open innovation, co-creation, crowdsourcing (or however you want to call it).
In my research I argue that connecting the emerging technology of virtual worlds with a customer-centric perspective of open innovation allows unique and inventive opportunities to capitalize on users’ innovative potential and knowledge. The concept of avatar-based innovation serves as a point of origin to reveal these possibilities and represents the first attempt to systematically take advantage of virtual worlds for innovation management.
In doing so, I argue on one side that existing customer integration methods should incorporate the latest advances of information and communication technologies to enrich the interaction process. The technology of virtual worlds could further enrich existing web-based customer integration methods, by allowing real-time, media rich and highly interactive collaboration between manufacturers and their customers.
On the other side, there are characteristics that suggest that the digital environment is especially conducive to innovation and creative tasks. In fact, the playful environment of virtual worlds has been described as engines of creation that provide the freedom to experiment and lead to unprecedented rates of innovation (Ondrejka, 2007). The built-in tools encourage users to create iteratively and interactively almost anything imaginable, while sharing the act of creation with other users. As the boundaries of the virtual and the real world dissolve, avatars could use their creativity to design products with real-world potential (Hemp, 2006).
Concerning the second issue (…provide accurate information on what subjects would really do): I guess this is always a challenge with market research. Do you know the subject will act “in real life” in the same way he promised to do so when I crossed a box on your questionnaire? True there are certain biases in virtual worlds, but there could be also advantages. Barg, McKenna, and Fitzimons (2002) for example point out that the “true self” is both more accessible and better expressed in Internet settings then in face-to-face settings. The same effect can be expected in the case of virtual worlds. This would further suggest that the demand customers pose upon new products might be particularly revealing in the context of virtual worlds. Similarly Enkel, Kausch and Gassmann, (2005) content that in the context of toolkits for user innovation, customers’ reluctance or reticence to articulate their needs, wishes, and suggestions is reduced. In part, this could counter the tendency of people to provide answers that they think the inquirer wants, rather than probe for their own preferences (Ciccantelli and Magidson, 1993). In my experience this appears to be true for the case of Second Life. Apparently some people may prefer to have a simulated self do the talking rather than the ‘real’ person in a physical setting.
To put it short, there are a number of issues with using virtual worlds for market research and for new product development.Practical examples are only starting to shed light on the opportunities and challenges virtual worlds provide.
January 16th, 2008 at 2:19 am
Kohler and Gonzales, thank you very much for your rich insight and pertinent questions on this forward-thinking topic.
I don’t believe virtual reality is any less susceptible to the contradiction between “say” and “do” than other research methods. Based on Dr. Kohler’s research, I’m inclined to favor the avatar-based platform over other methods in getting respondents to say what they truly mean via a “simulated self,” as he describes. This is a strength of online methods in general — the anonymity makes respondents comfortable to express true attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions.
Gonzales has a valid concern about the credibility and accurate representation of avatars. However, I think it depends on the application. If you seek ideas and opinions from respondents, does it matter what avatar they’ve created (or what online screen name for that matter)? Even if your avatar doesn’t look like you, your attitudes/beliefs/opinions are still the same. It’s still you, isn’t it? This is why I think the idea of avatar-based product innovation is brilliant. And, while Dr. Kohler admits the methodology is new, he also shows how avatar-based research is an effective platform for innovation research.
I think virtual reality is best seen as an up-and-coming research platform. Currently, it provides an engaging and fun environment for respondents — cited by both Ronda and Kohler above. This may well be the most engaging method out there, especially to young people. It’s hard for us to envision it as a viable research or communication platform because it currently has niche appeal and exists primarily in a game-like or fantasy-like context.